Predictor

live

A personal investment intelligence system: geopolitical and macro events become falsifiable theses with trackable signals, crawled nightly by AI — while every conviction call and every euro stays human.

ObsidianPythonClaudelaunchd

as of 2026-07-12 · refreshed daily 07:15

Cycle state

gauge as of 2026-07-12

Late / Overdue

state 3 of 4 · continuous 3.0

Fresh

Mid

Late

Crisis

ValuationCAPE 41

lateness 1.00 · w 0.3

PolicyReal 10y 2.0%, QT

lateness 0.75 · w 0.4

EconomyCurve +0.1, HY 3.2%

lateness 0.22 · w 0.3

gauge running on offline-fallback feeds — surfaced as a warning in the integrity report, verified before acting

Crisis tripwires

0 of 3 lit

Hard triggers that flip the playbook to State 4 regardless of the clocks. All quiet today.

HY OAS > 4.50%
now 3.20%
unlit
VIX > 35 & breadth < 30%
now VIX 18, breadth 55%
unlit
Sahm rule ≥ 0.50
now 0.18
unlit

Theses validating

7 ideas in the pipeline

Confirmatives fired

7/33

trackable signals across live theses

Active predictions

0 resolved — Brier pending

Ladder rungs armed

0 fired · 0 near today

Open positions

37 tickers tracked

Integrity — red flags

5 warnings · 10 invariants held

Allocation vs cycle targets

state-3 targets · tick = target

Cash / Deposits83.9% → 40% · +43.9pp

Bonds (EUR ultra-short)0.0% → 18% · -18.0pp

Goldstarter placed3.8% → 12% · -8.2pp

Silverstarter placed2.0% → 6% · -4.0pp

Energy4.7% → 12% · -7.3pp

Stocks / AI4.7% → 12% · -7.3pp

Crypto0.9% · no target

Percentages of the managed base — absolute amounts stay in the vault. Cash over-weight is the deploy priority; the rust bar is the story.

Positions by trend state

14 open

14open

strong6
mixed2
downtrend4
unpriced2

In the DCA zone

CEGCRUDWGLDWSLV

Downtrend by EMA state — where the Fibonacci ladder is live and adds are pre-planned, not improvised.

Validating theses — thesis health

weighted confirmative score, 0–1 · click a thesis to read it

DCA ladder proximity

7 armed

DCA ladder rungs and their proximity to trigger
	Rung
WGLD	1.618 ext	3.1% above
WGLD	2.0 ext	13.6% above
WGLD	confirmation	awaiting EMA
WSLV	1.272 ext	3.6% above
WSLV	1.414 ext	16.6% above
WSLV	1.618 ext	42.8% above
WSLV	confirmation	awaiting EMA

Each rung is a pre-committed price or signal from the ticker’s machine-readable ladder, checked against live prices every morning. A met rung keeps alerting until acted on — a standing reminder, not an event.

Prediction ledger

every explicit call, Brier-scored on resolution · click a column to sort

Prediction ledger — every explicit call with entry and current probability
	Probability			Status
Epic Fury — fertilizer shock feeds food-CPI (C1 leg)	unset — flagged	—	2026-12-31	active
China pivots energy imports to US supply (contracts signed)		75% → 75%	2027-12-31	active
Grand Bargain — full multi-domain execution		80% → 30%	2028-12-31	active
Hormuz — structural stabilization (no credible sustained closure)		85% → 65%	2030-12-31	active
El Niño 2026 — soft-commodity price transmission		60% → 60%	2027-06-30	active

Wrong calls are kept and scored, never deleted — deprecation is calibration data. Calibration becomes readable once ~10–15 calls resolve.

Daily refresh

ran 2026-07-12

07:15 · deterministic

cycle gauge · prices & EMA · allocation · price alerts · integrity · email

Overnight crawl

ran 2026-07-11

22:30 · headless Claude — drafts only

crawls load-bearing confirmatives into a review queue; never flips a signal

Watchdog

armed

08:30 · deterministic

heartbeat check on the morning run — silent failures become loud

Weekly brief

ran 2026-07-06

Mon 08:00 · deterministic

the one manual touchpoint of the week — punch list + allocation drift

Snapshot generated 2026-07-12 · 16:54UTC by the vault’s own pipeline — percentages and counts only, by design.